The Razorbacks will take on St. John's in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. With the rivalry renewing between John Calipari And Rick Pitino, the Razorbackers staff give their predictions for how the game will turn out.
Razorbackers staff predictions- NCAA Tournament: Arkansas vs St. John's
Antonio
While significant hype has been generated about Rick Pitino facing John Calipari in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, more attention should be devoted to their players and both teams’ paths to today’s game.
Prominent sports companies like ESPN that produce odds, predictions, and analytics for games, including this one, seem to fail to give serious consideration to vital factors at play for the Arkansas Razorbacks (21-13; 8-10 SEC) as they prepare to clash with the St. John’s Red Storm (31-4; 18-2 Big East).
FanDuel.com discloses that the Razorbacks are 6.5-point underdogs against the Red Storm. Also, according to ESPN Analytics, St. John’s has a 71.3% chance of defeating Arkansas. However, we should be reminded that ESPN BET Sportsbook and ESPN Analytics proffered similar unfavorable odds against Arkansas before the team battled the Kansas Jayhawks (21-13; 11-9 Big 12).
As we now know, Arkansas outlasted Kansas 79-72 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Therefore, before one looks at these popular sources for odds and analytics and becomes hypnotized by them, remember how wrong they were about Arkansas against the talented preseason No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks.
Although many disagree, Arkansas has the edge in athleticism against St. John’s. The Red Storm cannot put a player on the court who offers an advantage against the Razorbacks. However, Arkansas can put players on the court, especially Trevon Brazile, for which St. John’s does not have an adequate answer in athleticism.
Even Zvonimir Ivisic, with his size and shooting prowess beyond the arc, offers the Hogs a competitive edge offensively. Adou Thiero would've been another answer for the Razorbacks in addition to Brazile, but because of a knee injury, he'll miss today's contest.
Arkansas has endured the SEC gauntlet, starting 0-5 in conference play and becoming one of the best teams in the nation afterward, even as it has had to combat serious injuries throughout the season.
Therefore, when a team has faced Auburn, Florida, and Alabama, three of the top ten teams in the nation, almost pulling upsets against them, St. John’s cannot present Arkansas with anything it has not seen this season. The Razorbacks’ brutal schedule this season has prepared them more for this game than the Red Storm’s schedule has prepared it.
Given this, expect the lessons and experiences the SEC schedule has supplied Arkansas to give it a vital edge in this contest. Boogie Fland, who will play his second game after missing many months because of a hand injury, will perform better than he did against Kansas, considering he needed that game to regain his basketball footing.
Fland will give the Hogs an even greater boost than he did against the Jayhawks. Imagine the increased confidence Arkansas will have if Thiero, its leading scorer, plays.
The Hogs must move the ball fluidly, play aggressive defense without fouling, including quality 3-point defense, and commit to making shots at the basket and free-throw line. Expect a close game. Ultimately, Arkansas will make several critical plays late, as it did against Kansas, to upset St. John’s.
Arkasnas 86–82
Jackson
Arkansas is going to keep up well in this game against St. John’s, but the magic will soon wear off. The Razorbacks will be outshot by the Red Storm, leading to more offensive production and second chance opportunities. Even though this may be the end of the season, the Hogs have a lot to look forward to next year.
St. John's 75–67
John
St. John’s has been one of the best teams in the nation all season. They are top 10 in rebounding and top 5 in offensive rebounding, giving them extra possessions from missed shots. They have a terrific defense as well, forcing turnovers at a high rate and making opposing teams shoot inefficiently. Their biggest weakness is three-point shooting, but RJ Luis Jr. is shooting 52.4% from three over his last nine games. They are a physical team that plays better as the game goes on.
However, St John's has not seen the size and athleticison that Arkansas possesses.Arkansas has been tested in the gauntlet that is the SEC and faced physical teams on a nightly basis. They are also a good defensive team and can throw multiple bodies on whoever is shooting well. They have dealt with injuries all season and are getting healthy at the right time.
Boogie Fland played against Kansas for the first time in two months and there are rumors that Adou Thiero may play against St. John’s. Fland and Thiero were the two top scorers for the Razorbacks this season.
The resurgence of Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile has been critical to the recent success of this Razorback squad, especially dominating in the paint. The offense has also seen massive improvements over the last month. The Hogs are averaging 80.6 points over their last eight games, and that number jumps up to 84.6 if you remove the anomaly game against South Carolina.
My full prediction is similar to what happened against Kansas. Arkansas will have a great offensive game in the first half but will need to rely on their defense in the second half. They always fall into a scoring drought after a good offensive showing in the first half, and St. John’s plays much better in the second half, outscoring their opponents by an average of nine points.
Arkansas plays well in close games, and they have multiple players that can get a basket down the stretch. It will be a nailbiter, but Arkansas pulls out the victory and Coach Calipari gets back-to-back wins against legendary coaches.
Arkansas 68-65
Pat
Calipari's Hogs prove they can grind out gritty win over Pitino’s Johnnies to reach Sweet 16.
Arkansas 65–63
Samuel
The Hogs will fight to the bitter end but will be barely bested by a better team.
St. John's 73–71
Austin
The hype around St. John's is deserving. They're athletic, aggressive, defensively minded, and a really well-coached team. Overall, the Red Storm has been a better all-around team than Arkansas. But when it comes to matchups the Hogs may have the upper hand.
St. John's isn't a great shooting team. They make their living cleaning up the board and Arkansas' length will be a problem for St. John's. While Pitino has a couple of 7-footers on the team, they largely ride the bench. Their tallest guy who plays significant minutes is Zuby Ejiofor, who, while leading the team with 8 rebounds a game, is only 6-foot-9.
With Jonas Aidoo, Zvonimir Ivisic, and especially Trevon Brazile, it'll be hard for St. John's to rebound at the same clip. And at 30.4 percent from the three-point line, it's unlikely they'll shoot the Razorbacks out of the gym.0
Arkansas 72–68