While most attention leading up to the second round of the NCAA Tournament game between the Arkansas Razorbacks (21-13; 8-10 SEC) and the St. John's Red Storm (31-4; 18-2 Big East) has been on John Calipari and Rick Pitino, the action college basketball fans will witness on the court will surpass media's dominant focus on the two coaches. Pitino will not take one shot, and Calipari will not make one pass; this game belongs to their players.
Also, this game does not belong to the college basketball "experts," analysts, oddsmakers, and bracketologists; again, it belongs to the players. To humor ourselves, though, we should consider what ESPN BET Sportsbook divulged about this game. ESPN BET Sportsbook has the Arkansas Razorbacks as 7.5-point underdogs against the St. John's Red Storm. Also, according to ESPN Analytics, the Hogs have only a 28.9% chance of upsetting Pitino's team.
As we now know, ESPN BET Sportsbook and ESPN Analytics were both wrong about the Razorbacks heading into the game against the Kansas Jayhawks (21-13; 11-9 Big 12), given that Arkansas upset Kansas 79-72 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. If one looks solely at the two teams' records, St. John's has a much better record than Arkansas. However, considering that all schedules are not created equal, the Razorbacks's and the Red Storm's schedules need unpacking to offer a more sophisticated understanding of the two teams.
Arkansas's schedule has been far more difficult than St. John's. The Razorbacks have gone through the SEC gauntlet, and that brutal schedule has prepared them to face any team in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has almost upset three of the top ten teams in the nation: Auburn, Florida, and Alabama. Even though the Hogs did not win those three games, they demonstrated that Calipari's team can compete well against any team and has much more of a shot of upsetting St. John's than ESPN gives them.
Although St. John's will not present Arkansas with new challenges, it is vital to understand what the Razorbacks must do to defeat the Red Storm. If Arkansas rises to the challenge of three keys to victory over St. John's, Razorback Nation can ready itself for the Sweet 16.
3 keys to the Arkansas victory over St. John's
Attack zone defense
Rick Pitino is one of the best basketball coaches in history. Therefore, when he saw how a simplistic zone defense stifled the Razorbacks' offensive production in the second half of the game against Kansas, John Calipari and his players must know Pitino will attempt to exploit the Razorbacks' offense with his own zone defense. As a brilliant basketball mind, Pitino has looked at more film on the Hogs and has found that the Razorbacks have struggled against other teams that have used zone defense against them.
To be successful against zone defense, Arkansas must attack it. The Razorbacks must move the ball fluidly against it and any defensive scheme employed. The Hogs must feature constant motion by players without the ball. D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis cannot be afraid to drive the ball to the basket when zone defense is applied. They, of course, must be smart with the basketball. Zone defense, however, does not prevent a team from using dribble penetration to arrive at the basket. Arkansas must value the basketball and avoid lazy passes. Pitino's team is too good defensively for the Hogs to be careless with the basketball.
Play excellent 3-point defense
Although the Red Storm is not an offensive juggernaut, it can hurt opposing teams from behind the three-point line. Therefore, the Razorbacks must make a concerted effort to play excellent three-point defense. Many teams have shot their best three-point percentages this season against the Hogs. Pitino's team is not one Arkansas should allow to have any breathing room from behind the arc.
Arkansas guards must play suffocating defense against RJ Luis Jr., following him wherever he goes, especially behind the three-point line. According to ESPN, RJ Luis Jr. averages 18.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game and shoots 44.8% from the field. He also shoots 34.3% behind the three-point line. The Razorbacks significantly limit what the Red Storm can do offensively by stopping him.
Be physical
The Razorbacks' big men must be physical throughout the game. They must give the Red Storm an understanding of what SEC muscle is. This physicality must be shown offensively and defensively. Jonas Aidoo, Zvonimir Ivisic, and Trevon Brazile must be aggressive on the offensive and defensive boards.
The Hogs cannot allow St. John's to push them around at any point during the game. When the game is over, Rick Pitino needs to discuss how physical Arkansas was as one significant reason his team lost.