The Arkansas Razorbacks 13-8 (2-6 SEC) are coming off an impressive win over the then No. 12 and now No. 14 Kentucky Wildcats 15-7 (4-5 SEC) at Rupp Arena. As posited before the game, an Arkansas win over Kentucky could launch an inspired Razorback campaign to make the NCAA Tournament. While the Hogs have had an opportunity to celebrate the victory over the Wildcats, their brutal schedule gives them no opportunity to relax.
Just as the Razorbacks were given almost no chance of defeating the Kentucky Wildcats, FanDuel has disclosed that Arkansas is a 7.5-point underdog against the Texas Longhorns 15-7 (4-5 SEC) in the Moody Center. According to ESPN's analytics, the Hogs have only a 21% chance of upsetting the Longhorns. While the Longhorns have played slightly better than the Razorbacks this season, Arkansas has proven it can beat any team in the country when it brings its competitive fire to the court.
Before the regular season started, the Razorbacks defeated the then No. 1 and now No. 16 Kansas Jayhawks. During the regular season, the Hogs upset the then No. 14 and now No. 24 Michigan Wolverines, and, of course, they upset the Kentucky Wildcats in Rupp Arena last Saturday. Therefore, placing too much doubt in Arkansas's ability to pull off the upset in Austin, Texas, is evidence of a lack of wisdom. If the Hogs perform close to how they did in Rupp Arena, they will upset Texas.
As we approach the Arkansas Razorbacks and the Texas Longhorns battling one another on February 5, 2025, at 9:00 p.m. ET in Austin, we must consider five factors that can lead to a significant victory for the Hogs on the road.
Arkansas basketball: 5 keys to upsetting Texas
D.J. Wagner must demonstrate leadership
Given that Arkansas's sensational freshman point guard, Boogie Fland, the team's second-leading scorer and assist leader, had season-ending surgery, D.J. Wagner must demonstrate the same leadership he exhibited during the Hogs' win against Kentucky. As reported by ESPN, Wagner played 38 minutes, scored 17 points, and contributed eight assists. Although many may not want to hear this, Arkansas moves the ball more fluidly with Wagner at the point than with Fland. Through Wagner's leadership at the point, the offense never became stale; the ball constantly moved.
Such movement on offense will be crucial to helping the Hogs build the shooting momentum developed against Kentucky. For most of the season, the Razorbacks have not shot the ball well. The absence of ball movement is at the heart of why they have not shot the ball well. When a team lacks motion on offense, it often does not place itself in positions to take quality shots, which has been the case for most of the season for the Hogs. If Wagner keeps the ball moving for the Razorbacks, Texas will experience challenges similar to those faced by the Wildcats in defending them.
DJ Wagner played all 20 minutes in the 2nd half vs Kentucky. He was 7-8 from the floor, 2-2 from the 3 point line for 17 second half points. He also had 2 assists and no turnovers. That’s a great half of basketball! pic.twitter.com/mQDMOST388
— Wess Moore (@Wess_Moore) February 2, 2025
Jonas Aidoo and Zvonimir Ivisic must play big
Although Arkansas upset Kentucky in Rupp Arena, it was not because the team established a respectable presence in the paint. To be competitive in the SEC, a team must experience success at the rim. While the Razorbacks have size, their big men play small, especially Jonas Aidoo and Zvonimir Ivisic. Aidoo has struggled with injuries, which has resulted in him being a shell of the player he was for the Volunteers last season.
While one can understand that he is not playing at full strength, he must play smarter, including committing to boxing out and maintaining proper defensive positioning to protect the paint and compete at the rim. Also, given opposing teams are pushing him around, Ivisic must begin to pump some serious iron.
Since developing muscle will take some time, he must become a more consistent threat behind the perimeter to force big men outside the paint, giving the Razorbacks a strategic advantage when he is on the court. He is more of a liability than an asset when he does not make three-point shots.
Weather the storm
When playing on the road in the SEC, a team must prepare itself to handle the electric environment. Given that this is a rivalry game, the fans will engender an atmosphere that will make it challenging for the Hogs to upset Texas. However, as the Hogs went into Rupp Arena, one of the toughest places in NCAA basketball history to play, and handled Kentucky, especially in the second half, they must respond effectively to crowd noise and the energy it provides for the Longhorns.
Texas's fans will generate energy for their players to go on a few runs. Arkansas must be prepared to limit those runs and not be unsettled by them. The Razorbacks must properly check their emotions, especially Billy Richmond III, to avoid costly technical fouls.
Stop Tre Johnson
John Calipari must have his team ready to stop the Longhorns' freshman guard Tre Johnson. According to ESPN, Johnson averages 19.0 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game, and shoots 45.0% from the field. D.J. Wagner and Billy Richmond III are excellent defenders who can give him serious problems. If Arkansas does not at least contain him, the team will have difficulty upsetting the Longhorns.
Johnson is an excellent three-point shooter. Arkansas's three-point defense is horrible. The Hogs must make a serious commitment to defending the three-point line without fouling. In their last two games, the Razorbacks fouled three-point shooters several times. If Arkansas fouls Johnson behind the perimeter, he will make the team pay, considering he is great at the free-throw line.
Be competitive on the glass
Against Kentucky, Arkansas was competitive on the boards, which is necessary to win games in the SEC. The Hogs must be competitive on the offensive and defensive glass to upset Texas. When Arkansas has lost games this season, poor rebounding has been one of the primary reasons. If the Hogs do not keep Arthur Kaluma, a Longhorn senior forward, off the boards, it will be difficult to upset Texas. According to ESPN, Kaluma averages 13.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game, and shoots 51.8% from the field. Therefore, the Hogs must commit to limiting what he can do.