The Arkansas Razorbacks 15-10 (4-8 SEC) have an arduous task as they go on the road to The Jungle to face the No. 1 Auburn Tigers 23-2 (11-1 SEC). Although the Tigers are not unbeatable, they are unquestionably the best team in the nation. Auburn's roster has everything any college basketball coach could desire. Given this, a pessimistic person might argue that Arkansas should stay home on a brutally cold day in Fayetteville and forfeit the game. However, Auburn's head coach, Bruce Pearl, posits that the Arkansas Razorbacks have proven they are good enough to defeat any SEC team.
ESPN BET Sportsbook has the Razorbacks as 16.5-point underdogs against the Auburn Tigers, and, according to ESPN Analytics, the Razorbacks have only a 7.8% chance of upsetting the Tigers in Auburn. However, again, as Bruce Pearl emphasized, the Hogs have proven they can beat any team in the SEC. The Razorbacks were underdogs against Michigan, Kentucky, and Texas; Arkansas won each game. When Arkansas clashed with Alabama, arguably the second-best team in the country, the Hogs could have won but lost by the slimmest of margins to the Crimson Tide.
To win this game, though, Arkansas must play its best basketball of the season in one of the most challenging places in the nation: The Jungle. Again, no one should overlook the possibility of the Arkansas Razorbacks entering this hostile environment and upsetting the ultra-talented Tigers. If Arkansas rises to the challenges of three keys to the game, the team can shock the college basketball world by upsetting No. 1 Auburn in The Jungle.
3 keys to Arkansas basketball upsetting Auburn
John Calipari must do elite coaching
When John Calipari took his team into Rupp Arena, an environment as equally hostile as The Jungle, with all the historical emotions associated with the game, he proved that he could still engage in the elite coaching that many, especially in Kentucky, do not believe he can. To be clear, Auburn is slightly more talented than Kentucky. However, the games against Kentucky and Alabama provide him with necessary comparisons for his challenges against Auburn. Calipari must use the strategies that worked well in those games against Auburn.
To Calipari's credit, he did a powerful job motivating his team during the postgame conference at Texas A&M, arguing that he had "some fragile players." While no one will contend that Arkansas has the best team in the nation, only small percentage of unserious fans will say most players on this team lack pride. When Arkansas players heard their coach assert he had "some fragile players" on his roster, one can reasonably expect the team to prove it does not suffer from fragility in any context.
While Calipari must do an excellent job with the X's and O's tonight, he must do something even more fundamental to winning this game: keep his team motivated to win. As one of the best basketball coaches in history, he started the motivation process at the previously mentioned postgame conference. As the emotions of this game begin to play an instrumental role, he will need to be the chief leader of those emotions. To win this game, the Hogs must show equanimity, and Calipari will be central to this mental composure materializing.
Be physical
In Arkansas's 69-61 loss at Texas A&M, the Razorbacks lacked the physicality they had been playing with since their win over Kentucky. Although the team lost a close game against Alabama, it possessed the necessary physicality for much of the game to win. Alabama is arguably the most physical team in the nation. Therefore, if Arkansas brings the physicality it brought to Kentucky and displayed at Bud Walton against Alabama for much of the game, it can cause many problems for the Auburn Tigers.
Jonas Aidoo, who appears more like a shell of the player he was for the Volunteers, must use his size to contribute meaningfully to the game. He must be actively defend the lane and command the offensive and defensive boards. While he has battled injuries, he has enough in the metaphorical tank to play with the necessary physicality and aggressively pursue rebounds.
While physical and aggressive play is no doubt needed on defense, the Hogs must be equally physical and aggressive on offense. Zvonimir Ivisic must score down low and play through contact. He, of course, must confidently shoot his three-point shot, which is one competitive advantage the Razorbacks possess, but making some shots at the basket is vital. In fact, all Razorbacks must play through contact as they drive to the basket. When they drive to the basket, they must not miss easy shots.
Move the ball fluidly on offense
When Arkansas defeated Kentucky and Texas, the ball moved fluidly on offense; it was beautiful offense to behold. Such movement places much pressure on a defense, wearing it down. The chief reason Arkansas often experiences long scoring droughts is the team's failure to run an offense that discernably prioritizes quality shots. When the Hogs do not move the ball on offense, featuring much motion, the offense becomes stagnant. If Arkansas's offense lacks fluid ball movement, Auburn will run Arkansas out of the gym and back to Fayetteville.
As point guard, D.J. Wagner must make it his top priority to ensure that the ball is moving fluidly on offense. Against Auburn, he cannot have a game like he did against Texas A&M, a game in which the ball did not move fluidly, resulting in an undesired offensive output. If the Arkansas Razorbacks are to upset the Auburn Tigers, Wagner must be a court general and play with keen basketball intelligence.