Three reasons Arkansas football will not have success in 2025

Arkansas football's season could crash in burn if they don't fix these issues before the season.
Sep 28, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA;  Arkansas Razorbacks linebacker Larry Worth III (30) reacts during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
Sep 28, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks linebacker Larry Worth III (30) reacts during the first half against the Texas A&M Aggies at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images
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Arkansas has addressed many of last season’s transfer portal losses, particularly in the trenches. The offensive line could be the team’s most improved unit, bolstered by five transfer additions. New Mexico transfer Mike Washington also seems to be the real deal.

Still, major questions linger across the roster. Both the wide receiver and defensive back rooms are entirely rebuilt. Only a handful of the new players achieved notable success at their previous stops, and most who did had it at smaller programs. So, watching how that translates to the SEC will be interesting, to put it lightly.

Beyond personnel concerns, the Razorbacks must also navigate a range of external factors that could heavily influence how their season unfolds.

Last week, Razorbackers published an article detailing the three reasons Arkansas football will succeed in the upcoming football season. To keep things balanced, we're going to examine three factors that could hinder the Hogs from achieving success in the 2025-26 season.

Three reasons Arkansas football's 2025-26 season does not end in success

1. The Schedule

There's one massive reason the Razorbacks haven't succeeded in the last decade: the schedule.

Obviously, it's not an excuse to be mediocre—and bringing it up is like beating a dead horse—but it's still the reality of the situation. Arkansas' schedule this season is tough.

The AP dropped its preseason Top 25 poll on Monday, and Arkansas has nine teams on the schedule that received votes. The bulk of the Razorbacks' season begins and ends with two top-six teams. No. 6 Notre Dame and Arkansas will face each other for the first time in history at the end of September, while No. 1 Texas will be the second-to-last game of the season. Perhaps the most intimidating part of the schedule is a six-game stretch that starts with Ole Miss and ends with Auburn, where every team received votes in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll.

The schedule isn't just hard this season—it's historically difficult.

Kelly Ford spends most of the offseason running numbers and offering different angles to view the upcoming college football season. One statistic Ford brought up this summer is the schedule difficulty. However, Ford does it slightly differently from most.

Instead of comparing schedules against others in the same season, he created a power ranking model that assigns "historical averages" to each ranking to ensure the reference point remains consistent year after year. To make his rankings, he simulates how many wins the No. 12 power-rated team would be expected to have with any given schedule. Arkansas landed at No. 1 at 6.5 wins. Theoretically, the Razorbacks could be a historically average top 25 team and still lose seven games.

Fortunately, the schedule is a double-edged sword. As head coach Sam Pittman said during SEC Media Days, it's a "Hell of an opportunity." If the Hogs can surprise some people, all Arkansas needs is around eight or nine wins to join the College Football Playoff conversation.

Another graphic Ford published further explains why Arkansas' schedule is so hard. The Razorbacks will play some of the best offenses in the country. So, that makes Arkansas' new (and improved?) defense one of the biggest concerns for this team.

Next: Questions on defense