Arkansas football's schedule is one of the hardest in the country. It's not exactly 'news' as that's been the case for the better part of a decade. That's what happens when you play in the toughest conference (and the toughest division before the SEC did away with them) in the nation.
On one hand, it's frustrating. The Hogs never seem to catch a break. But on the other hand, it gives Arkansas one of the shortest routes to the College Football Playoffs.
With the 2025-26 schedule, Arkansas doesn't need to win double-digit games to be considered for a CFP at-large bid. In fact, the Razorbacks may only need to win eight games according to Kelley Ford's rankings. Herein lies the problem—what teams would those eight games come against? In this article, we'll try (that's the key word here) to uncover a rational path to eight victories without coming across as 'homers.'
Arkansas' path to the College Football playoffs
Before we dive head-first into this, it's essential to clarify that only those in the facility truly know the strengths and weaknesses of the 2025-26 Arkansas football team. However, based on the Hogs' additions from the Transfer Portal, and with it being Taylen Green's second season under offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino, the offense should thrive this season.
Unfortunately, with the losses on the defensive line and secondary, it's hard to be hopeful about the defense living up to the same standard. If that's indeed the case, Arkansas will have to win some shootouts to come close to the vaunted eight-win mark.
Easy wins
- Alabama A&M
- Mississippi State
In reality, Alabama A&M is the only for sure win on this schedule, but Mississippi State has continued to decline since Mike Leach unfortunately passed away in 2022. Last season, the Razorbacks took over the game early and thumped the Bulldogs 58-25.
Mississippi State does have Blake Shapen back at quarterback after sustaining a season-ending injury at the beginning of the 2024 season. However, if the Bulldogs can't significantly improve on defense, it may be another blowout for the Hogs.
For sure losses
- Texas
- Notre Dame
Not everyone in the country will play three CFP teams during the regular season like the Hogs, but only six will play two teams from the semi-final rounds. Arkansas joins Rutgers (Penn State and Ohio State), UCLA (Penn State and Ohio State), Ohio State (Texas and Penn State), Purdue (OSU and Notre Dame), and Texas A&M (Notre Dame and Texas).
Neither Texas nor Notre Dame lost much going into this past offseason, so the likelihood of Arkansas stealing one of those games isn't very high.
Lean Wins
- Memphis
- Arkansas State
Arkansas State
If it weren't for the situation heading into these games, they would have been in the "Easy Wins" category. But alas, not much comes easily nowadays.
As the second-largest team in the state, Arkansas State has wanted a shot at the Natural State's flagship university for some time now. When the two teams face off in Little Rock, it'll mean just a little more to the Red Wolves than to the Hogs. However, the talent gap is wide enough that Arkansas should come out victorious.
On the other hand, Arkansas will have to travel to Memphis for some odd reason. The Tigers are a scrappy team out of the American Conference that went 11-2 last season, with close losses to Navy and UTSA and wins against Florida State and West Virginia in the Scooter's Coffee Fisco Bowl. It'll be tough for the Razorbacks to go into Memphis and confidently put down the Tigers. But again, the talent gap should be enough to give Arkansas the edge.
Lean Loses
- Ole Miss
- LSU
Like the "Lean Wins" category, the teams under "Lean Losses" are here because of certain conditions that could keep Arkansas in the game. Starting with Ole Miss, the Rebels completely embarrassed Arkansas in 2024, specifically, the defense. It was perhaps the biggest blight on defensive coordinator Travis Williams' resume to date. You can guarantee he's had this game circled since November.
Also, Ole Miss is starting a new QB, and so far, head coach Lane Kiffin's first-year QBs have struggled in his offense. Austin Simmons has been a backup since 2023, so the impact may not be as evident as, say, Matt Corral's first year at Ole Miss. However, Arkansas has the advantage of playing the Rebels early in the season. There's a chance that the Hogs can steal a win in Oxford if the dominoes fall correctly, albeit a small chance.
Arkansas has a better chance against LSU for one simple reason. Brian Kelly has failed to produce a decent defense in three seasons at a football program that built its reputation around that side of the ball. Why would that change this season? If it becomes a shootout on Nov. 15, the Hogs will have a puncher's chance. The only reason it's not a coin flip game is that it's in Death Valley.
Coinflip Games
- Texas A&M
- Auburn
- Tennessee
- Missouri
All four teams enter this season with differing levels of success from the previous year. Ranging from a CFP team in Tennessee to an Auburn team that finished under .500, one thing ties them together: uncertainty.
Tennessee scrambled to find a QB after Nico Iamaleava left to go back home to California. Missouri is also starting a new QB. Brady Cook willed the Tigers to wins at times over the last few years, so we'll see how they fare without him in 2025.
Auburn may look good on paper, but it's failed to do anything under Hugh Freeze's leadership so far. It's just a dumpster fire that was painted gold until proven otherwise. As a team, Texas A&M is almost completely untouched. However, the Aggies are coming to Fayetteville for the first time in over a decade. No longer will Arkansas fans have to watch the Hogs play in that cursed AT&T Stadium.
I hate giving strait-up W-L predictions. I think this is a much better way to look at the upcoming season.
— Austin Farmer (@FarmersaurusRex) July 1, 2025
Between October 11 and 25 (Tennessee, Texas A&M, Auburn) is where the season will be made or broken, where Sam Pittman can earn another season or not. pic.twitter.com/XGclhag4lz
Arkansas' eight wins
If Arkansas can take care of business and defeat the teams they're supposed to in the "Easy Wins" and "Lean Wins" categories, that's four in the victory column. The Razorbacks would need to win at least one game between Ole Miss and LSU, which is easier said than done, but still possible. That makes five.
The final three wins come down to a three-game stretch between October 11 and 25. Arkansas will play three of the four "Coin Flip" teams in a row. As improbable as it may seem, if the Razorbacks can win two of those three and get the monkey off their back against Missouri at home to end the season, Arkansas will finish with eight wins.