Before the regular season started, the Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13; 8-10 SEC) ran the Kansas Jayhawks (21-12; 11-9 Big 12) out of Bud Walton Arena 85-69 in an exhibition game. Although both teams are different from what they were then, especially considering Kansas is nowhere near as good as its top ranking at the time suggested, one thing has not changed: the Razorbacks are much more athletic than the Jayhawks.
ESPN BET Sportsbook discloses that the Arkansas Razorbacks are 5.5-point underdogs against the Kansas Jayhawks in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to ESPN Analytics, Kansas has a 71.0% chance of defeating Arkansas. However, Bill Self knows his team will face a tough challenge against the Razorbacks: "Yeah, it's a hard draw, but that's the position we're in." If Arkansas rises to the challenge of three keys to the game, the Razorbacks will upset the Jayhawks.
3 keys to the victory for Arkansas basketball over Kansas
Move the ball fluidly
If the Arkansas Razorbacks move the ball fluidly, they can beat any team in the NCAA Tournament, including Kansas. D.J. Wagner must prioritize constant ball movement and ensure his teammates commit to constant motion. Constant ball movement is crucial to the Hogs positioning themselves to take quality shots. When Arkansas does not move the ball fluidly, it does not take quality shots and experiences long scoring droughts.
With the return of Boogie Fland, the Hogs' sensational freshman guard, the team has an opportunity to boost its assists and maintain constant ball movement. Before he suffered a hand injury, which caused him to miss much of the season, Arkansas often failed to move the ball fluidly. Therefore, John Calipari must emphasize to him that he should keep the ball moving. Constant ball movement helps the Razorbacks place consistent pressure on the Jayhawks' defense.
Play defense without fouling
While Arkansas must play aggressively on defense and offense, the team must not commit silly fouls if it hopes to upset Kansas. Even though the Razorbacks now have an eight-man rotation, Adou Thiero is still unavailable to play due to a knee injury. The Hogs cannot be sure how many minutes Fland can contribute. Given those realities, Arkansas may be essentially operating on a seven-man rotation.
Although the Hogs can defeat the Jayhawks with a seven-man rotation, ill-advised fouls should not further limit their rotation. Arkansas has a significant edge on defense. However, Bill Self will exploit poor defensive decision-making if they do not play smart on defense.
Make free throws
When the Arkansas Razorbacks drive to the basket, and they must prioritize driving to the basket, they must hit their free throws. Arkansas has had games where missed free throws have cost it games. Operating with a limited roster has impacted the Razorbacks' ability to make free throws consistently.
Ultimately, though, Arkansas must focus when they have opportunities to hit free throws. More focus can help them shoot free throws better. If the Hogs do not shoot free throws well, they will lose.