There's a massive misunderstanding about how likely Arkansas basketball is to make the NCAA Tournament. Comments dispelling the idea litter social media as some fans (mainly Kentucky fans, if we're being honest) joke that Hogs are destined to play in the NIT after the start they've had. However, the experts seem to contradict them.
ESPN's Joe Lunardi, the king of bracketology, has had the Razorbacks on the bubble for quite some time. It wasn't until Arkansas basketball's win over Missouri that it finally crossed the threshold between 'Last Four In' and 'First Four Out.' Since extending the NCAA Tournament to 68 teams, the 'Last Four In' partake in a play-in game to see who joins the field of 64, who all have byes.
Arkansas basketball: Joe Lunardi's NCAA Tournament outlook
As luck would have it, Texas was also one of the 'Last Four In' before they played Arkansas, taking last night's game to a whole new level. Apart from the spectacular performance of Tre Johnson, the game being a bubble matchup was one of the reasons the Longhorn nearly made a game-clinching comeback; they were fighting for their Tournament lives.
But as everyone now knows, the Hogs won that game. So, what is Arkansas basketball's NCAA Tournament outlook since beating Texas? Well, according to Lunardi, the Razorbacks jumped to another tier called 'Last Four Byes,' meaning they won't need to play into the tournament!
BRACKETOLOGY: @RazorbackMBB are now “in the tournament” and out of Dayton’s “First Four” NCAA Tournament games, according to @ESPNLunardi. pic.twitter.com/NY4eITPWSR
— Jacob Davis (@JacobScottDavis) February 27, 2025
But how? Arkansas is below .500 in the SEC and only has 17 wins. First of all, if the Hogs won their last three games, they would be 9-9 in the SEC and right at 20 wins on the season. However, that doesn't matter as much as what's actually in their resume. Out of 31 games, most likely, 15 will be against quad-1 (Q1) opponents, with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State left to play.
Out of 31 total games, Arkansas will face 15 Quad 1 opponents. That’s crazy. This is why you can get in the tourney with a losing conference record. 7-11
— Chris Brewer (@chrisbrewer10) February 27, 2025
While Arkansas's only won four Q1 games so far, that's as much as, or more than, 13 teams ahead of it in the NET rankings. And thankfully, the Hogs still have two more opportunities in front of them. Arkansas is also perfect in its 11 Q3-4 games, but the Razorbacks have two tough Q2 losses to LSU and Oklahoma from the beginning of SEC play. If it weren't for those two losses, there would be no doubt about Arkansas making the NCAA Tournament.
As head coach John Calipari said after the Hogs' loss to Auburn, Arkansas basketball's future is in its hands. An NCAA Tournament bid is theirs to lose, and they haven't come this far to give it up easily.