The one Arkansas let slip: Cole Payton’s rise and the Razorbacks’ what-if

Jan 31, 2026; Mobile, AL, USA;  National quarterback Cole Payton (9) of North Dakota State runs the ball during the first half of the 2026 Senior Bowl at University of South Alabama, Hancock Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images
Jan 31, 2026; Mobile, AL, USA; National quarterback Cole Payton (9) of North Dakota State runs the ball during the first half of the 2026 Senior Bowl at University of South Alabama, Hancock Whitney Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

Every college football program has a list of what-ifs. Recruits who flew under the radar. Evaluations that didn’t quite land. Players who developed somewhere else and left coaches wondering what might have been if timing, opportunity, or vision had been just a little different.

For Arkansas football, one of those names resurfaced in a big way at the Senior Bowl: North Dakota State quarterback Cole Payton.

Payton, named Player of the Game for the National Team, wasn’t a household name coming out of high school. He wasn’t the shiny, can’t-miss prospect dominating recruiting rankings. He was a developmental quarterback without many big time offers but the talent was evident.

Instead, Payton ended up at North Dakota State, sat patiently for most of his Bison career, and waited. When his moment finally came in 2025, he didn’t just seize it, he rewrote expectations.

Cole Payton's Opportunity With The Bison

After spending the majority of his time backing up entrenched starters, Payton finally got his shot as NDSU’s full-time starter in 2025. All he did was lead the Bison to a 12–1 overall record and a perfect 8–0 mark in Missouri Valley Conference play, guiding one of college football’s most disciplined programs with poise and production.

Payton completed 161 of 224 passes for 2,719 yards, throwing 16 touchdowns to just four interceptions. His 71.9 percent completion rate ranked second nationally in the FCS and third in single-season school history. He averaged 12.1 yards per attempt and posted a 193.8 passer efficiency rating, both single-season records at NDSU.

And he wasn’t just efficient, he was explosive.

As a runner, Payton rushed 136 times for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and finishing as the team’s second-leading rusher. In total, he accounted for 3,496 yards of offense, ranking fourth in school history, while setting program records for total offense per game and per play.

That production didn’t come from a quarterback padding stats in a spread system. It came from a player trusted to run a pro-style offense, manage games, and punish defenses when they overcommitted.

Arkansas Football Missed Out on a Game-Changing Talent

Physically, Payton looks like the prototype Arkansas has often favored at quarterback with that SEC build. At 6’3”, 233 pounds, he’s a big-bodied, powerful runner who doesn’t shy away from contact. He plays fast and aggressive, with the toughness to withstand SEC-level physicality and the athleticism to be a true factor in the run game.

His arm strength is above average, allowing him to push the ball vertically and attack throws outside the numbers. Despite limited starting experience, his accuracy consistently exceeded expectations. Payton shows the ability to layer throws at multiple levels, extend plays without panicking, and keep his eyes downfield when escaping pressure.

Those traits were on full display during Senior Bowl week. After a strong set of practices, Payton carried that momentum into the game, throwing for 72 yards and adding 22 rushing yards, once again showcasing the dual-threat skill set that made him so effective at NDSU.

For Arkansas, the takeaway isn’t regret, it’s reflection. The Razorbacks never offered him, and no other reported programs did either. Yet when a small-school prospect breaks out in a draft setting like he did, it’s fair to ask: how did he go unnoticed?

Payton wasn’t a miss because he lacked talent. He was missed because he hadn’t yet become the player he would grow into. Somewhere along the way, North Dakota State saw the long-term upside and trusted their development process. Arkansas, like many Power Four programs juggling constant roster turnover and immediate needs, never looked his way.

Now, as Payton earns national recognition and enters the professional conversation, he represents a familiar lesson in college football recruiting: evaluation doesn’t end on signing day. Valuable lesson for teams to look at what a player can become rather than what he is at that current time. Arkansas should reflect on that lesson.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations