Arkansas is nearly halfway through its 2024 season, and it's becoming clear what this team's identity is. They're a boom-or-bust offense with a decent defense. Fans can see the potential but have zero confidence that the Hogs will win week-to-week. However, to act like Arkansas is a walk in the park for Tennessee this week would be an overreaction, but that's exactly what most national media members think.
Jake Crain of Crain & Co. led a discussion of Arkansas's match-up with Tennessee and didn't hold back. "I look at this Tennessee offense, and I think they are chomping at the bit after that Oklahoma game," said Crain. Tennessee had their worst offensive performance against the Sooner, putting up only 25 points, and the Vols are hungry to prove they can win games without relying on the defense. That makes perfect sense. But what doesn't make sense is why he — and many in the media — thinks Arkansas's defense is who they prove it against.
He continued saying, "I think Tennessee smells blood in the water on offense. I think this could be a weekend where Nico (Iamaleava) explodes, not just through the air, but with his legs. Everybody's going to talk about Taylen Green's ability to run. I think we may see Nico's ability to run on display here up until the point where they don't need to do it anymore. Where they have a lead that they're safe with."
Let's compare some numbers really quick. Of Tennessee's four wins, all but Oklahoma came against either FCS teams or teams with offensive efficiency ratings ranked 102 or lower, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. If you averaged their ratings, it comes out to 20.3, which would rank 118th in the FBS.
Tennessee's opposing defenses have been better but not great, either. Kent State is ranked No. 133, NC State is ranked No. 96, and Oklahoma is ranked No. 12. They average out to 44.6, good enough to tie for 90th. The Sooners undoubtedly have a great defense, but the Volunteers did struggle against them.
On the other hand, Arkansas has played teams that average 55.4 on defense (would rank 66th) and 51.4 on offense (would rank 67th). The Hogs are battle-tested on both sides of the ball, while Tennessee can say they've been slightly tested on offense. As crazy as it sounds (especially if you've kept up with the Hogs this season), Arkansas is the most complete team the Vols have faced.
Now, I'm not saying Arkansas wins this game. In fact, I'll ruin my prediction pick for tomorrow. I think Tennessee wins by two scores, but I think they pull away at the end. The Hogs don't have as good a defense as Oklahoma, but it's not too far off, either. So, any insinuating Tennessee makes easy work of Arkansas's defense should be taken with a grain of salt.