Calculating Arkansas football wins needed for College Football Playoff at-large bid

Perhaps the biggest story in college football this season will be the expanded playoff format. Increasing from just four teams in 2023-24 to twelve this year, the college football playoff is going to be more inclusive and that should provide tons of hope for programs across the nation. Of course, the Arkansas Razorbacks would love to be a surprise playoff participant.

For that to happen, though, it would take a historic turnaround from Sam Pittman's program. After all, teams that went 4-8 in their previous season as the Hogs did last year don't typically make the type of improvements in one offseason that lead to contending for national championships.

However, one college football analyst believes that the path to a playoff at-large bid isn't that narrow for Arkansas. Kelley Ford, who compiles college football power rankings and resume ratings, recently posted an interesting graphic on social media showing how many regular-season wins each program in the country would likely need to win in order to earn an at-large bid to the playoff.

As you can see, Ford believes that nine regular-season wins would get the Razorbacks into the playoff as an at-large team. What's more, he thinks that should Arkansas reach that mark, it would be the third-most impressive nine-win season that any team in the nation could produce.

That's because Arkansas has a brutal schedule in 2024. In fact, many believe it is among the toughest schedules of any SEC team.

Thus, even if the Hogs don't win the SEC, something that seems highly unlikely, they could sneak into the playoff field if they increase last season's win total by five games, which doesn't seem as daunting as it may sound at first glance.

How could Arkansas football get to nine wins?

The path to nine wins isn't easy, that's for certain. First of all, it would require the Razorbacks to go 4-0 in the nonconference portion of the schedule. That would mean beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Oklahoma State (on the road), UAB, and Louisiana Tech. Of course, coming out of Stillwater, Oklahoma with a win would be the toughest task to accomplish in the non-con portion of the schedule.

Next, Arkansas would have to be perfect against this year's SEC opponents who were mediocre or bad last season. That would mean beating Auburn (which was just 6-7 in 2023) and Mississippi State (which was 5-7 a season ago). Both of those games are on the road, though, making them tougher to win even though neither Auburn nor Mississippi State are expected to be all that great this year.

Then, to get from six to nine wins, Arkansas would have to pull three upsets in six games in which they will be considerable underdogs. That means finding a trio of victories in the games against Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas, LSU, Missouri, and Ole Miss.

That will be tough but all of those games except the season-finale at Missouri will be played at home or on a neutral field. Thus, if a little Fayetteville magic rises up, Arkansas may have a shot at springing some upsets on its own field.

The reality is that Arkansas' path to nine wins is difficult. That's just the nature of playing in the SEC. What's more, the program isn't exactly on the most stable footing, with Pittman on the hot seat.

However, the offseason is the time to dream and be overly optimistic meaning no Arkansas football fan should be afraid to envision a season where everything goes right and the Hogs are one of the surprises of the conference. What's more, according to Ford, it won't take a perfect regular season for Arkansas to earn an at-large playoff bid. It would only take a very very good one and that's something that isn't out of the question.