The past few weeks have been a slight letdown after Arkansas's electric start to the season. Does the trend continue this weekend, or do the Razorbacks come out victorious in the final installment of the Southwest Classic at AT&T Stadium?
Razorbackers sat down with the site expert for, Gig Em Gazette, Graham Harmon, to learn more about Texas A&M's team and how they stack up against Arkansas.
Q & A with Gig Em Gazette Site Expert Graham Harmon
Q: Arkansas has one of the most efficient running games in the country, with 5.5 yards per carry and the second-most rushing touchdowns (17). Meanwhile, Texas A&M is No. 40 in the FBS in rushing defense efficiency. How well do the Aggies handle the Hogs' ground game Saturday?
A: As I've dove into the numbers here, I think this is actually a matchup that favors the Aggies. Their overall YPC may not be amazing, but that's mostly due to giving up some explosives in the run game, which they have really shored up over the last two weeks. They've allowed an average of only 36% rushing success on a down-to-down basis, meaning it's tough for teams to be really consistent against them in the run game.
Additionally, they've allowed only 65% of opponent rushing averages on a per-carry basis—for context, Arkansas, who has put up good numbers as a rush defense, has allowed 79% of opponent averages. For all of the Hogs' per-carry efficiency, too, they only have averaged 44% rushing success against P4 opponents. Enough with the numbers, though: I think the Aggies' defensive line can make things difficult on the Arkansas front. However, they've had a proclivity to give up the edge at times, which Petrino has no doubt seen on film. It'll be tough sledding down-to-down for Arkansas, but they may bust a few open if A&M doesn't play disciplined.
Q: With Marcel Reed most likely starting against the Hogs over Connor Weigman, tell us a little about what the young quarterback brings to the table.
A: Reed is dynamic as a ball carrier, but there's a lot of doubt about his ability to consistently push defenses to respect the downfield passing game. He's plain missed a lot of throws when they were there for the taking, especially against Bowling Green, where the A&M coaching staff was trying to get him out of his comfort zone. When he's in his comfort zone, though, like we saw against Florida, he and OC Collin Klein complement each other quite well.
Q: As you know, Arkansas's offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino ran Texas A&M's offense last year. However, when he moved to Arkansas, Petrino suggested Jimbo Fisher handcuffed him. How much of that is true, and do you think facing the Aggies again gives Petrino extra motivation?
A: I don't know how much Fisher "handcuffed" Petrino. Against Mississippi State late in the year, when Jaylen Henderson took over after two QB injuries ahead of him, the Ags put up 51 points running the exact same scheme that Bobby P is running with Taylen Green up in Fayetteville. It's more viable than his standard scheme is in the modern game (see Louisville teams late in his tenure there, or the offense with Max Johnson running it last year), but you don't have much recourse if a team is disciplined enough to stop it.
Petrino complained about having to use different terminology, but that's a Saban thing; you keep your same terminology and make the new assistants adapt. No one complained about it with him, and I don't think it's a bad practice. I don't put it past Bobby to use his former employment as motivation, though; that's what elite competitors do.
Q: What are some Texas A&M players that Arkansas fans need to know before the game?
A: I'd say aside from Reed, I'd pick RB Le'Veon Moss, DE Nic Scourton, and WRs Jabre Barber and Cyrus Allen as names to watch.
Q: The Aggies have struggled on offense this season, but the defense seems as tough as ever. What are some things Texas A&M’s defense does well and something they struggle with? What about the offense?
A: Going back to what I was saying before, the explosives have given the Ags issues. Outside of those, the Aggie defense has been really, really tough down-to-down. It's just a matter of keeping those buttoned up. The offense is looking like an elite rushing unit and has the potential to be a big threat passing as well if and when Conner Weigman returns—that's not so much a factor when it's Reed, however.
Q: One of the things that separates the SEC from the other Power Four conferences is talent in the trenches. How do you see that matchup shaking out between Arkansas and Texas A&M?
A: This one will definitely come down to the line of scrimmage. I like the Aggies in both facets. Arkansas has played well and aggressively against the run on defense, but Auburn had some stuff going against them that I think A&M will be able to replicate. Additionally, when Klein is committed to running the veer (like I think he will with Reed behind center), it's exceedingly tough to stop, and I'm not sure Arkansas has the experience or personnel at LB and DL to do so.
He'll bait them with all sorts of misdirection, pulling guards, presnap motion, etc., and go over their heads with a wide-open guy downfield. Reed just has to hit those opportunities. On the flipside, A&M has an extremely talented DL that every other team they've played this year has tried to scheme around. There's been hardly any squads that have attempted to pass downfield with regularity thanks to A&M's ferocious pass rush, which ends up significantly limiting a given offense.
Q: Historically, this game has been insane no matter how good one team is over the other. What are some of your favorite moments from the Southwest Classic?
One of my best friends from high school and college is a big time Arkansas fan. He and I ended up at the same school (neither Arkansas or A&M, funnily enough), and so we would watch the game together often. I would say that my favorite single memory is watching the 2016 game in his dorm when Trevor Knight hit Josh Reynolds for a long touchdown on the sideline to blow that one wide open. I was jumping and screaming and he went to hide under a nearby table.