North Dakota State potentially joining the Mountain West wouldn’t just be another FCS-to-FBS success story. It could become a pressure point for the College Football Playoff itself, accelerating expansion talks and forcing the selection committee to reevaluate how access is granted in an increasingly congested FBS ecosystem.
Most of the attention surrounding NDSU’s possible move has centered on whether the Bison could compete at the FBS level. Their history suggests that question is already answered. The more consequential issue is what happens when programs like NDSU, South Dakota State, and possibly Montana or Montana State enter the FBS and begin winning immediately. At that point, the playoff conversation shifts from possibility to logistics.
The CFP and Chairman Hunter Yurachek Will Have Their Hands Full
The current CFP framework, even with its upcoming expansion, was designed around the belief that only a limited number of teams would realistically deserve national title consideration in any given season. That belief is already under strain, and the addition of a program like North Dakota State to the Mountain West would push it closer to breaking.
If the Bison join the league, the Mountain West instantly gains another program capable of producing a Top 12 résumé. Conference champions from outside the Power structure are already fighting for limited space, and a dominant NDSU would further crowd an already narrow lane. The problem becomes magnified if South Dakota State and other teams follow, creating a scenario where multiple former FCS programs are competing for the same playoff oxygen as long-established Group of Five contenders.
In that environment, access becomes less about merit and more about scarcity, a dynamic the CFP has tried to downplay but never fully solved.
The CFP committee has never formally acknowledged favoring established brands, but familiarity has consistently played a role in how teams are evaluated. North Dakota State would challenge that tendency almost immediately. The Bison would not be entering the FBS as a rebuilding project but as a fully formed program with national championship expectations, proven coaching infrastructure, and a track record of beating Power Conference opponents.
16-Team Format Might Not Be the Endgame
The rumored 16-team playoff has been positioned as a solution to access and equity. Ironically, the arrival of programs like North Dakota State could expose its limitations rather than resolve them.
As the FBS continues to absorb elite FCS programs, the number of teams capable of making a legitimate playoff case will only increase. Power Conference at-large bids are unlikely to shrink, conference champions will continue to receive automatic consideration, and leagues like the Mountain West will expect their best teams to be evaluated on equal footing. In that context, a 16-team field can quickly feel restrictive rather than expansive.
Further expansion, once considered excessive, begins to look like a practical response to structural growth. If the CFP wants to avoid marginalizing entire conferences or turning league championships into de facto elimination games, the pressure to grow beyond 16 will be difficult to ignore.
For decades, the CFP has treated FCS football as a separate ecosystem, largely irrelevant to playoff planning. That separation is fading. A successful NDSU transition would establish a clear blueprint for ambitious programs: dominate at the FCS level, invest in facilities and NIL infrastructure, move up with momentum, and demand immediate national relevance.
Once that pathway is validated, it becomes repeatable. Programs like Montana and Montana State would no longer be viewed as long shots but as logical next entrants. At that point, the CFP is no longer just evaluating teams; it is managing the consequences of upward mobility within the sport that will continue to keep growing.
One of the most unexpected outcomes of North Dakota State’s move could be its effect on the perception of Group of Five football. If a former FCS program can join the Mountain West and immediately compete, it undermines long-held assumptions about competitive ceilings and conference hierarchies.
North Dakota State joining the Mountain West is historic on its own, but its ripple effects could reshape college football far beyond Fargo. The real impact may come years later, when the CFP is staring at a bracket that cannot comfortably accommodate the number of teams with legitimate playoff claims.
In that future, the Bison would not just represent another successful transition story. They would symbolize a sport outgrowing the limits of its own postseason structure, forcing decision-makers to confront a reality they have long tried to manage incrementally.
College football is expanding. The pool of contenders is deepening. And programs like North Dakota State may be the catalyst that ensures the College Football Playoff is never truly finished evolving.