Karter Knox is testing the waters for the NBA draft while maintaining eligibility to return to college. There are a few reasons for players to go through the draft process. This gives him experience with team interviews, NBA Combine drills, and competing against the best college players out there.
Perhaps the biggest reason for Knox is to gauge his draft stock for this year and the 2026 draft, and to gather information from scouts on what to improve on to increase his draft stock for next year, if he were to return.
How Karter Knox's NBA draft decision affects Arkansas basketball
Knox had a great freshman season for the Arkansas Razorbacks. He started the season off slow but developed into a starting-level wing who was integral to Arkansas's Sweet Sixteen run. He averaged 8.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, one assist, 0.6 steals, and 0.5 blocks per game, with shooting splits of 46.2/35.0/80.2. Over his last 13 games (including tournament games), he averaged 11.3 points, shooting 57.1% from the field and 42.9% from three. His efficiency during that stretch is impressive and shows his remarkable improvement throughout the season.
Team Outlook if He Returns
If Knox decides to return to Arkansas for another year, he will have an expanded role and be integral to the team's success. On defense, he would either guard the opposing team's best perimeter player or their most physical perimeter player.
On offense last year, he excelled as a spot-up shooter and as a cutter, and his offensive role will likely expand to include more on-ball reps, similar to what Adou Thiero's role was this past year. His fantastic defense, scoring ability, and veteran leadership would help Arkansas' chances to make a run for a national championship.
Team Outlook if He Leaves
If Knox decides to stay in the NBA draft, this will leave a big hole in Arkansas's lineup on the wing.
College teams lose important players all the time and are replaced, but this would feel a bit different in Coach Calipari's second season with the Hogs. They would be losing their best perimeter defender, a great shooter, leadership, and team chemistry. Current roster players would need to step up, or they would need to add another transfer to fill the void.
Possible Replacements
The improvement Richmond showed from the beginning of the season to the end was incredible. Over his first nine SEC games, he averaged 2.0 points on 9.3 minutes per game, while shooting 33.3% from the field. Over his final 14 games, he averages 7.7 points on 22.9 minutes per game, shooting 48.2% from the field.
His minutes increased due to the injuries, but he proved that he deserved those minutes with his increased production, efficiency, and effectiveness. He is an active defender with lateral quickness, quick hands, and is pesky on the ball. He won't be able to guard bigger, more physical wings due to his slim frame, but he will be able to step up and take on tougher matchups next season.
After his ACL tear in 2022, Brazile never quite got back to the player everyone hoped he could be. That was until the end of this past season. After Adou Thiero's injury, Trevon Brazile entered the starting lineup, and something inside him clicked, and he was playing with elite confidence. Over his final nine games, he averaged 11.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 2.0 stocks per game while shooting 55.1% FG and 39% 3PT. His athleticism is off the charts and is a great help defender. His scoring, athleticism and help defense could help mask the loss of Knox's production.
Razorback fans will always remember how Darrion Williams carried Texas Tech to victory over Arkansas in the Sweet 16 this year, so they should be pining to go get him. Williams is 6'-6" and 210 lbs, but he plays much bigger than that. He lacks the necessary quickness to guard most wings, but his strength and physicality allow him to guard bigger wings and forwards.
He will be able to take on the more physical matchups on the defensive end that would have been Knox's defensive assignment. Williams has a high basketball IQ and can act as an offensive hub at times, as he averaged 3.6 assists with an assist percentage of 23.1%. His shooting has been inconsistent, but he makes big-time shots in big-time moments, which is what Arkansas needs during the tournament.
A former teammate of incoming transfer Malique Ewin, Jamir Watkins is a 6'-7" athletic wing that averaged 18.4 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.2 steals. Turnovers and shooting efficiency were issues last year, but that was partially due to his high usage rate. This would likely improve with less usage and a more defined role.
He could also thrive as an off-ball player, as he shot 39% on open catch-and-shoot threes, according to 247Sports. His size, athleticism, and 6'-10.75" wingspan give him all the tools to become a versatile defender. He can step into Knox's role as a 3-and-D player and be effective in Calipari's system.
Draft Stock
Karter Knox is a prototypical 3-and-D wing prospect, and NBA teams covet players with those skill sets. They also prefer players to be versatile on both ends of the floor, and Knox checks the box on the defensive end, but needs to expand his offensive skillset.
He has gained some steam in draft circles and is currently projected to be a second-round pick in this year's draft, with No Ceilings having him going 36th, the highest anyone has him in mock drafts. However, there are talks about Knox having mid-to-late first-round potential in the 2026 NBA draft if he continues on his development trajectory.
Prediction
There is a possibility of Knox impressing teams enough in workouts, interviews, and scrimmages that he soars up draft boards and gains a first-round promise. In the NIL era, freshmen are less likely to remain in the draft if they don't have a first-round promise, since second-round picks don't always receive guaranteed contracts.
However, I think teams would like to see Knox improve in certain aspects of his game and become more versatile on offense. I believe teams would like to see him get more on-ball reps, showing more shot creation, passing, and good decision-making. If he continues his development, he could end up becoming a late lottery pick in the 2026 NBA draft.
Prediction: Knox returns to Arkansas for his sophomore campaign.