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Hogs football could be a top 25 team historically, and lose 7 games in 2025

The Hogs could be good in 2025, but the schedule is just that brutal.
ByAustin Farmer|
Arkansas' head coach Sam Pittman walks down the sideline assisted by a cane as both teams warm up before the AutoZone Liberty Bowl kicks off between Arkansas and Texas Tech in Memphis, Tenn., on Friday, December 27, 2024.
Arkansas' head coach Sam Pittman walks down the sideline assisted by a cane as both teams warm up before the AutoZone Liberty Bowl kicks off between Arkansas and Texas Tech in Memphis, Tenn., on Friday, December 27, 2024. | Chris Day/The Commercial Appeal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In recent years, Arkansas football has faced one of the toughest schedules in the country. And, of course, it's not surprising that the 2025-26 season is no different. However, it is peculiar just how good the Hogs could be on paper yet still finish slightly above .500.

Arkansas football brutal schedule could give any top 25 team trouble

The analysts with Kelley Ford ratings published a graphic depicting how the 12th-ranked team, according to their power rankings, would fare against all 136 FBS schedules. Unfortunately, but again, not surprisingly, Arkansas' schedule ranks No. 1.

Kelley Ford explained in a later post that 'No. 12 power-rated team' is a historical average. At only 6.5 wins, the No. 12 rated team in the country throughout college football history would only escape the season, barely making a bowl game.

It's hard to argue with the 'Arkansas is cursed' belief when facing a schedule like this year's. According to FanDuel.com, the Razorbacks are projected to win 5.5 games, with the odds leaning toward the under. However, per the Kelly Ford rankings, Arkansas could still be a top-25 team compared to the historical average and still lose seven games in 2025.

The SEC takes up most of the first row (top 20) of the graphic. Thirteen teams reside in the top 15, while Ole Miss, Missouri, and Tennessee rank between 20 and 25. Historically, Kelly Ford predicts that the No. 12 team would win between 8.3 and 8.5 games with those schedules. According to Kelly Ford, Liberty has the easiest schedule. The historic No. 12 team would win nearly every game (11.7).

Kelly Ford's SEC schedule difficulty rankings

  1. Arkansas
  2. Florida
  3. Mississippi State
  4. Vanderbilt
  5. Oklahoma
  6. Kentucky
  7. South Carolina
  8. LSU
  9. Texas A&M
  10. Georgia
  11. Auburn
  12. Alabama
  13. Texas
  14. Ole Miss
  15. Missouri
  16. Tennessee
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