The College Football Playoff selection committee has seen difficult years before, but this cycle presents a uniquely explosive scenario, one that could ignite controversy no matter how the final rankings fall. At the center of the chaos this year is Notre Dame, Miami, and BYU, three teams packed together around the final playoff cutoff line.
The committee insists that Notre Dame (No. 10) and Miami (No. 12) aren’t yet “comparable,” despite the Hurricanes’ head-to-head win over the Irish earlier this season and holding the same record. That logic has held so far because BYU sits between them at No. 11, giving the committee cover to avoid invoking head-to-head criteria.
But that protection may vanish soon and if it does, the committee could find itself trapped in a no-win situation.
BYU: The Team That Keeps the Committee Safe
Right now, BYU is the committee’s buffer. The only reason head-to-head hasn’t kicked in between Notre Dame and Miami is because BYU separates them numerically. If BYU stays put or moves up, the committee can continue to avoid declaring the teams “comparable.”
But here’s where things get messy: BYU plays Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship. If BYU wins, they would become a conference champion and in this playoff format, the other two highest-ranked conference champions occupy the final guaranteed spots. BYU would slide into the CFP at the back end of the field.
In that scenario:
- BYU gets in
- Texas Tech gets in
- Notre Dame and Miami both miss the playoff
- The committee avoids having to choose between the two
It is, without question, the cleanest possible outcome for the CFP.
And frankly? The committee should be rooting for it. Hard.
CFP Chaos Scenario For Miami and Notre Dame
If BYU loses to Texas Tech, the safety buffer disappears. Miami will rise to No. 11, Notre Dame stays at No. 10, and then, finally, the two teams become “comparable.”
That immediately triggers the head-to-head criterion. And that’s where the committee’s problems begin.
If Miami gets the final spot:
The committee must admit that they undervalued Miami all season, improperly ranked them behind Notre Dame, and effectively ignored head-to-head until they were forced to acknowledge it. It would be the correct move based on guidelines but a devastating admission of inconsistency.
If Notre Dame gets the final spot:
The backlash becomes far worse.
- Why did Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head but get ranked behind them?
- Why did the committee ignore its own guidelines when the stakes were highest?
- Why would early games matter less than late games?
- What message does that send to teams scheduling difficult non-conference opponents?
It would spark accusations of bias, favoritism, and brand protection, especially given Notre Dame’s national profile. Either choice leaves Chairman Hunter Yurachek and the committee in the center of a storm.
A Lose-Lose Situation for the CFP
No matter what the committee does if BYU loses:
- Miami fans will claim injustice if the Hurricanes stay out.
- Notre Dame critics will cry favoritism if the Irish get in.
- Neutral observers will question the consistency and transparency of the entire process.
- And the committee has no one to blame but itself.
They built the rankings that created this setup. They chose to separate Notre Dame and Miami for weeks. They delayed using head-to-head as a factor until the last possible moment. Now the consequences are looming.
The Easiest Way Out? BYU Wins
A BYU victory removes the Notre Dame–Miami debate entirely. Both programs fall out of the playoff field, and the committee avoids what could be the most controversial selection decision of the 12-team era.
Even if the committee believes Notre Dame or Miami is better than BYU, the political and public-relations headache of choosing between the Irish and Hurricanes is far worse.
BYU winning solves everything.
- No head-to-head dilemmas
- No accusations of bias
- No contradictions of committee guidelines
- No national outrage dominating playoff discussions
Yurachek and his group may not say it publicly, but privately, it’s the scenario that removes every landmine from their path.
The CFP committee is staring at a disaster scenario of its own making. The moment BYU loses, Notre Dame and Miami become comparable, and the committee must finally decide whether the head-to-head win matters when the stakes are highest.
No matter which team gets the final spot, the committee will face intense scrutiny for how it handled the rankings all year long.
So if you’re on the CFP committee? If you're Hunter Yurachek? You’re praying for BYU to win.
Because it’s the only path that keeps the playoff from exploding into full-scale controversy and you live to see another year until more scenarios happen this go around next year.