ESPN's FPI heavily favors overrated Mizzou above Arkansas

The Razorbacks are playing Missouri for the Battle Line Trophy in their final game of the regular season. It's a game that most Arkansas fans detest: firstly, for the SEC foisting the rivalry on the Hogs and, secondly, because it's a rivalry that they can't seem to win.

The Tigers hold the advantage in the series by seven games. Since Mizzou joined the SEC, Arkansas has only won twice, and not once have the Hogs beaten Missouri in Columbia. Unfortunately, after a year that exceeded expectations in the win column but underperformed the eye test, that's exactly where they're headed for the season finale.

ESPN's College Football Power Index (FPI) indicates that Mizzou's domination isn't slowing down this year, giving Arkansas only a 33.2 percent chance to win. However, the two teams are evenly matched according to the offensive and defensive efficiencies. Both offenses are in the mid-40s, while the defenses are in the top 30, albeit Mizzou's is ranked 11 spots higher.

On the other hand, when you dive into its schedule, Missouri scraped by all season long. They have close wins against 6-5 Boston College, Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and Auburn. Its only dominant Power-Four win was against Mississippi State, the punching bag of the SEC.

Interestingly, the Tigers' losses were equally unimpressive. Their closest loss was to an up-and-down South Carolina team. The other two games were blowouts against Alabama and Texas A&M. Maybe the FPI is taking account of Arkansas's past in Columbia because, on paper, the teams are pretty evenly matched. Regardless, the Tigers' No. 21 CFP ranking seems to be overrated.

Sure, Arkansas's losses from Ole Miss and LSU are just as bad, but it isn't ranked in the top 25 and still has something Mizzou doesn't: a win against a top-25 opponent. And if Mizzou is, indeed, overrated, Arkansas could have two going into its bowl game.