With roughly five weeks to go until the madness officially tips off, the second half of the college basketball season is here and things around the country are heating up fast. Rivalries are intensifying, star players are emerging, and teams are either finding their identity or watching it slip away. For Arkansas basketball, it’s been a season-long roller coaster. Not the smooth, scenic kind either, more like the one that makes you question why you got on in the first place.
Well… kinda fun. Kinda not fun.
The Razorbacks have shown flashes of looking like one of the best teams in the country one night, then followed it up by resembling a bottom-of-the-pack SEC squad the next. The inconsistency has been frustrating, but it also makes this a perfect moment to check in on where Arkansas stands in the latest bracketology projections.
Arkansas’ Current NCAA Tournament Projection
Despite the ups and downs, Arkansas is firmly in the NCAA Tournament picture according to several major outlets.
ESPN (Joe Lunardi)
Lunardi currently has the Razorbacks slotted as a No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region. In this scenario, Arkansas would open the tournament in Philadelphia with a first-round matchup against either Miami or New Mexico, depending on which team survives the First Four play-in game. If the Hogs advance, they’d likely see No. 3 Michigan State (or No. 14 North Dakota State) waiting in the Round of 32.
On3 (James Fletcher III)
Fletcher projects Arkansas as a No. 7 seed headed to Oklahoma City in the South Region. His first-round matchup? A blue-blood showdown against No. 10 UCLA. Looming in that same quadrant are No. 2 Houston and No. 15 UT Martin, making for a potential second-round heavyweight battle.
USA TODAY Sports
A group of USA TODAY writers also place Arkansas as a No. 6 seed, sending the Hogs to Philadelphia yet again. Their projected opening matchup is against No. 11 Santa Clara, with No. 3 Michigan State and No. 14 East Tennessee Staterounding out the quadrant in the West Region.
Taking all of this into account, it’s safe to ballpark Arkansas right in the 6–7 seed range for now. That feels fair given what we’ve seen so far. The talent is undeniable, but the game-to-game consistency hasn’t quite matched it yet.
Of course, the higher the seed, the better, so being in that 6 range comes with a price. Several of these projections suggest a tough Round of 32 matchup, potentially against Michigan State or Houston. That’s no small task.
The interesting wrinkle? Arkansas has already played both of those teams earlier this season in non-conference action, and lost both games.
While those losses sting, there’s a silver lining. Arkansas already has real, meaningful film against potential March opponents. They’ve felt the physicality, the pace, and the execution level required to compete with teams like Michigan State and Houston.
That’s the beauty of playing a tough non-conference schedule. Yes, it can hurt your record in the short term, but it battle-tests your roster and prepares you for exactly these kinds of scenarios. And if a rematch happens in March, the Razorbacks won’t be walking in blind.
What the Final Stretch Means for John Calipari and the Razorbacks
John Calipari has had his hands full managing the wild swings of this season, but the bigger picture still looks promising. Arkansas is in a far better position than last year, when the Hogs limped into March as a No. 10 seed and were barely part of the SEC Tournament conversation.
Now? Arkansas is rank inside the Top 25, sits third in the SEC, and has a real opportunity over the final stretch to prove who they actually are. If the Razorbacks can string together consistency, clean up late-game execution, and protect home court, that 6 or 7 seed could easily climb.
Five weeks remain. The margin for error is shrinking. But the ceiling is still high, and if Arkansas finally figures out how to ride this roller coaster without flying off the tracks, March could get very interesting in Fayetteville