Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction and odds for NCAA Tournament First Round

After back-to-back Elite Eight appearances over the past two seasons, Arkansas journey for a third in a row starts in Des Moines, Iowa against Illinois in the West Region first round.

The Razorbacks have shown flashes of their upside over the past several weeks since Nick Smith Jr. returned from injury, but it wasn’t enough to impress the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, who slotted the Razorbacks as the No. 8 seed in the West. The team will face a talented, but erratic Illinois team in the first round.

This is a closely line spread, how should we bet it?

First, let’s check out the odds:

Illinois vs. Arkansas odds, spread and total

Illinois vs. Arkansas prediction and pick

Both teams are elite on the defensive side of the ball, running teams off the three-point line at top 25 rates and using their length to shut down the interior, allowing a top 40 percentage at the rim.

However, where these two teams differ is on offense, as the Razorbacks have the ball handling to generate good looks with Smith on the floor. This season, Arkansas’ turnover percentage goes down nearly thee percent when the freshman is on the floor and their three-point percentage goes up almost two percentage points as well to around the national average, per Hoop-Explorer.

The Illini lack a true ball handler to get inside and find open looks and are a putrid three-point shooting team, 330th in the country in shooting from beyond the arc.

These two teams are similar in that they struggle shooting from deep and are elite inside, but with Smith on the floor and Musselman’s tourney coaching prowess, I give the nod to Arkansas in what should be a grinding affair.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.