Keys to Victory: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Ole Miss Rebels

The Arkansas Razorbacks are two wins away from bowl eligibility, which would be a good ending to a season that started with mass injuries and bad losses at home. The Hogs have their work cut out for them if they want to go bowling. They’ve got two tough road games, a Dak Prescott led MSU Bulldogs squad, and a scrappy Missouri game left on the schedule.

As has been said over and over again, if the Hogs win out at home, they’re going bowling. But why aim so low? The Razorbacks take on the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday in Oxford. That’s maybe the worst home crowd in the SEC west. The Rebels have looked amazing this year. Except when they haven’t. (GREAT ANALYSIS, CORY!) The Rebels knocked off Ole Miss, then fell hard against Florida and Memphis, only to regroup with a dominating win over TAMU.

So what can the Razorbacks expect from Ole Miss on Saturday? Well, first off, they’re going to throw it. Like…a lot. It’s what they do, and they’re one of the best in the conference at it. They average 346 yards passing a game, which is 11th best in the nation. The Hogs give up an average of 273 yards through the air per game, which is 115th in the nation. So, if I was to guess what the Rebels are going to try and exploit on offense, I’m going to go with the Razorbacks linebackers and secondary.

It’s not like Arkansas doesn’t have some advantages in this game, though.  Mississippi has the #26th ranked rush defense, whereas Arkansas averages almost 200 yards rushing a game. The Hogs will have the advantage when it comes to running the ball. Ole Miss also has a propensity for turnovers. They are 97th in the country in turnover margin, having a negative rating overall. The Razorbacks are #27 in the nation at forcing turnovers, so Arkansas can take the game over defensively if the force Ole Miss to make mistakes.

Oct 31, 2015; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Alex Collins (3) rushes against the Tennessee Martin Skyhawks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Arkansas defeated UTM 63-28. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not a secret when it comes to winning a game as the Arkansas Razorbacks. Here are the Hogs “Keys to Victory” over the Ole Miss Rebels.

1. Control the Clock – Arkansas is 9th in the nation in time of possession. That’s how the Hogs set themselves up with opportunities to win against TAMU and Alabama. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is 114th in the nation in TOP. The less time Chad Kelley and the Ole Miss offense have the ball, the better for Arkansas.
2. Control the Line of Scrimmage – On both offense and defense, the Razorbacks need to dominate in the trenches if they want a shot against this Rebels team. Offensively, the Hogs have to establish the running game. Arkansas averages almost 4 yards a carry this season, and if Ole Miss is preoccupied with the running attack then Brandon Allen can do his thing. Allen has been very efficient this year, and has played his best football since the Auburn overtimes. If Arkansas can keep the Rebels honest with the run game, then Allen, Dominique Reed, Drew Morgan, Hunter Henry, and Jared Cornelius can make some big plays.
3. No More Big Plays on Third Down – Arkansas is 117th in the country on defensive third downs. That’s horrible. The defense does a good job of making the offense face 3rd and longs, but they give up so many huge plays in those situations. If Arkansas ever learns how to close out on third down, they’ll be very dangerous. Let’s hope they can do it on Saturday in Oxford.

Next: Tale of the Tape: Hogs vs Rebels

The Arkansas Razorbacks have got to win at least 1 game they won’t be favored in. 3 of their final 4 opponents are ranked. The Hogs need to get a win that can keep their win streak going. Ole Miss is beatable, especially if you can rattle their offensive confidence. Arkansas will need to pressure the QB and force some turnovers to make it happen.