As the Arkansas Razorbacks come off a much needed bye week after a brutal 3 game road trip, they look to take on an Auburn team who is having a serious identity crisis, and I don’t just mean the way their offense is playing either. No offense meant to the Tiger Plainsmen War Eagles, (Okay maybe a little) but come on guys…pick a mascot and stick with it!
So, with the mascot shaming out of the way, lets take a look at some numbers! Arkansas comes into the game with a 2-4 overall record and a 1-2 mark in SEC play. The War Plainsmen are 4-2 overall but are also 1-2 in the SEC. Both teams have a road win, Arkansas beating Tennessee, and last week Auburn beat a scrappy Kentucky team. The Hogs are favorites in this one by 5 and a half points, with Vegas usually giving a touchdown swing in favor of the home team. Which means in a neutral site game it would be less than a point in either direction.
The stats back up Las Vegas as well, Arkansas averages 23 points and 365 yards a game, while Auburn averages 25 points and 345 yards. On the other side of the ball, Arkansas gives up 23 points a game and 435 total yards, while the Tiger Eagles give 27 points and 424 yards a game.
However, one huge thing that works in Arkansas’s favor and reminds me a lot of the Tennessee match up, is the Plainsmen Tigers not so great run defense. They give up an average of 5 and a half yards A RUSH. If you’re Alex Collins and Rawleigh Williams you’re looking at that those numbers like Dan Skipper looks at a pound cake. (You know, in case you’re unaware that Arkansas has the biggest line in football!) For a Gus Malzahn offense, Auburn runs it an uncharacteristically high 66% of the time, which plays into the strength of the Razorbacks defense. Part of the reason for the high run volume is that the War Tigers have more interceptions than touchdowns, 7 picks to 5 TD’s. Gus has since handed the bus keys off to Red-Shirt Freshman Sean White (no, not the snowboarding guy, but how cool would that be?) after benching Junior Jeremy Johnson who had 6 of those interceptions. While White has a 66% completion rating, in 3 games he has yet to throw a touchdown, and has one pick.
Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports
The big match up, as with the Tennessee game, will be in the trenches. Alex Collins is averaging 5 and a half yards a carry even after the Alabama game, and has 682 yards on the season. While RWII is just behind him at 4 and a half yards a carry, and has 236 yards on the ground, as well. It also seems Kody Walker should be back this week, which will help open some run lanes in the fullback spot. Arkansas will have to contain Peyton Barber, who has 650 yards on the season and averaging a respectable 4.8 yards a carry.
Another thing to watch out for, and what could be a big difference maker, is how each team plays in the Red Zone. Neither defense is exactly dominating inside the 20’s as Arkansas has allowed opponents to score 78% of the time. However, Auburn is actually worse, giving up scores a whopping 85% of the time. On offense, the Red Zone has been unkind to the Hogs as they only score 64% of the time. Meanwhile, Auburn manages to come away with points 83% of the time.
As cliche as it sounds, this game is absolutely a must win game. While, it’s certainly not a “gimme,” Arkansas has had an extra week to prepare for the Gus Bus when it rolls into Fayetteville on Saturday. IF Robb Smith’s defensive unit can continue to improve as it has been, and the big buffet busters up front make some holes. This could be a huge step to getting Arkansas back into the bowl game picture.