A Look At The Numbers: How Do The Razorbacks and Tide Match Up?
By Blake Smith
The Razorbacks will face their toughest test of the season so far on Saturday, when they travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on the Nick-tator and his top 10 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide. According to the powers that be in Vegas, the Hogs are around a 16 point underdog at the time of this writing. The Razorbacks have a not so impressive 2-3 record on the season, but did pick up a much needed win on Rocky Top last weekend. The Tide however, will be entering the contest at 4-1 fresh off a 31-10 smack down of Georgia in their own back yard.
Now, before you go scrambling into the Ozark Mountains looking for your hidden moonshine stash, hear me out. This could actually be a really close ball game. (writers note: No, I did not have said moonshine before writing this…Bubba hid it really well this week.) After just comparing the records and rankings, no one could really blame you for just assuming this will be a runaway win for Alabama. However, a closer look at some of the numbers say otherwise. So, lets get into it.
A big overlooked fact for many, is the Razorback defense has been absolutely stellar in the 2nd half. The Hogs on average, only give up just over 7 points a game in the 2nd half, which puts them at number 19 in the country. That’s 3 points less than what even Alabama gives up. That number gets more impressive in the 4th quarter, as Robb Smith’s unit has allowed only an average of 3 points in the final quarter of play this season, and should be noted Tennessee didn’t get a single point in the 4th quarter last Saturday either. That number is good for 15th in the country. Alabama by they way, comes in at 45th allowing around 5.5 points in the fourth. This Razorbacks defense has been improving every week, and even shown flashes of brilliance at times. Tennessee’s QB and world class Sloth impersonator from The Gooines, Joshua Dobbs is one of, if not the, best running QB in the SEC. He Scrambled for only 7 yards against the Razorbacks last week. For context, he ran for 136 yards against a very tough Florida defense the week before. A major move that seemed to have worked pretty well, was moving former weak outside linebacker Brooks Ellis BACK to the middle where he played last season, and feels more at home. True freshman Dre Greenlaw has been asked to step up and fill that weak side spot, and so far, has played pretty well picking up 10 tackles last week.
Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
In a shock to exactly no-one, the biggest match up of the night will be in the trenches. It boils down to what team can contain the others run game. Both teams come in ranked in the top 25 in run defense, Alabama is number 7 allowing 84 yards a game. Arkansas comes in at number 17 at 101 allowed on the ground per game. Both teams average 40 rushes a game, while Arkansas has a slightly higher rushing average per game at 207 yards, compared to Alabama’s 200. That’s right, Arkansas is right there with Alabama in both rushing offense and defense!
So, two smash mouth styles going at it, but eventually someone’s going to have to pass right? Well, let’s break down those numbers!
Brandon Allen’s passing numbers for the Hogs so far, 93/141 1,360 yards with 8 TD’s and 3 picks. That comes out to a 66% completion rate, and a 161.4 QB rating.
While, Jake Coker’s numbers for the Tide are 79/139 976 yards with 9 TD’s and 4 picks. Which comes out to 56.8% completion rate and a 131.4 QB rating.
Looking at the Red Zone, neither team has had much luck at stopping teams inside the 20, Arkansas has allowed scores in the Red Zone close to 78% of the time, which is 44th in the country. What’s surprising is Alabama actually allows more Red Zone scores then the Razorbacks, as their defense gives up scores 83% of the time. On the other side, the Hogs offense has had some struggles in the Red Zone, scoring only 63% of the time. Alabama Excels, however at scoring inside the 20, with a impressive 90.5% success rate.
So, what do all those numbers and percentages mean? That Arkansas has a pretty good football team, that has been improving rapidly over the season. So, if Arkansas can play its game, avoid penalties, keep the crowd at Bryant-Denny at bay and Coach Bielema wears his lucky hat, this Razorback team could shock a whole lot of people!