Arkansas Football Season Predictions: Over/Under 8.5 Wins

Arkansas will be one of the more experienced teams in the country on the offensive side of the ball. The Razorbacks get back 9 starters and 89.1% of their total yards gained in 2014 (15th best mark in the country).

While the strength of the Arkansas offense starts up front behind a massive offensive line that returns 4 of their 5 starters from a unit that paved the way for 218 yards/game on the ground in 2014. Not a huge surprise to see the offensive line be a focal point under Bielema, as the front five was consistently a strength of his teams at Wisconsin.

What really has people excited about the Arkansas offense is the experience they have in senior quarterback Brandon Allen, who has started 25 games in his career at Fayetteville. Allen made tremendous strides in the second go of things under Bielema’s offense. While he threw for just 2,285 yards, he had an impressive 20 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions.

Allen will welcome back leading receiver Keon Hatcher (558 yards, 6 TDs), as well as one of the top tight ends in the country in junior Hunter Henry. They’re also excited about the potential of sophomore Jared Cornelius, as well as junior college transfer Dominique Reed.

The season prior to Bielema taking over at Arkansas, the leading rusher for the Razorbacks totaled just 757 yards. In Beilema’s first season, Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins combined for 1,985 yards and 8 touchdowns. In year two, Williams and Collins combined for 2,290 (both eclipsing 1,000 yards) with 24 touchdowns. Both are back for 2015 and with the talent up front these two could once again improve on their totals.

If there’s a concern with the offense, it’s that the Razorbacks will have to adjust to a new offensive coordinator, as former Central Michigan head coach Dan Enos replaces Jim Chaney. While their does figure to be some adjustments, I don’t expect it took to look a whole lot different than what Bielema has installed in his first two years on the job.

What caught a lot of people by surprise, were the improvements that Arkansas made defensively last year. The Razorbacks went from giving up a lofty 30.8 ppg in 2013 to allowing just 19.2 ppg in 2014. A lot of that credit has to go to first-year defensive coordinator Robb Smith.

Given what Smith was able to do last year, I expect the Razorbacks to remain competitive on the defensive side of the ball, but whether or not they take a sizable step back will come down to their ability to replace the loss of 1st-Team All-SEC & 3rd-Team All-American linebacker Martrell Spaight.

They also lose two of their top pass rushers in defensive end Trey Flowers (6 sacks) and defensive tackle Darius Philon (4.5 sacks). The good news up front is that they get back 8 of their top 10 from last year and are expecting big things out of junior college transfer Jeremiah Ledbetter.

Analysis written by Jimmy Boyd. For all your college football predictions, visit BoydsBets.com.

My Prediction:

UNDER 8.5 Wins – The Razorbacks fall just short of the projected win mark this year as they go 8-4. Although the Hogs are vastly improving and went 6-6 a season ago, Arkansas has too daunting of a schedule to make it to 9 wins in 2015. With four road games against Alabama, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss and a neutral site game against Texas A&M, the Hogs will have to win two of these five to reach nine wins; assuming they win all seven home contests. All five opponents are ranked inside the preseason top 25 and an SEC road victory is something Arkansas hasn’t accomplished since October of 2012 when they beat Auburn. Even with as many as nine starters returning to the offense, the defense is likely to take a step back with four starters moving onto the NFL. You have to take the under here!